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Canadian PM Paul Martin looks like being ousted, less than 12 months after being elected, reports Anne McIlroy2 n- [- q- O+ e* L/ X! }
; g7 w) ]0 r' u, ^$ s- WAnne McIlroy
6 Y8 L, Q: D' L+ V/ K8 DTuesday April 19, 2005
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! q |# {; A& \; R8 |4 e) ]Guardian Unlimited
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; l4 N' c! k2 F2 k! @+ W+ |, W" }Canadians are facing the prospect of another federal election less than a year after the prime minister, Paul Martin, and his Liberals won a minority government.8 B& u) `6 J1 N6 x# W4 A* Q
6 }) E+ \5 I' I1 n7 |The opposition parties are expected to topple the Liberals soon over allegations of corruption in a programme that was intended to promote Canada in the predominately French-speaking province of Quebec.
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The exact timing is still unclear. The most likely scenario would see the Conservative leader, Stephen Harper, move to defeat the Liberals in a mid-May no confidence vote, with the support of the opposition Bloc Québécois. That would mean an election at the end of June, almost exactly a year since the last vote. In that campaign, Canadians were clearly anxious for change after three Liberal majorities in a row, but were not yet comfortable with the Conservatives on issues like abortion.
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Public opinion polls show that Mr Harper could win a minority or even a majority government this time and that Canadians now say integrity in public office is their number one issue. This means Mr Harper may be able to win simply by portraying himself as Mr Clean. There was a whiff of panic in the Liberal camp last week, with a number of MPs considering defecting. % n2 C- ?+ u5 O1 m) e I4 A0 g
8 l! Z# e# J: I7 P8 o. b- sThe crisis for the Liberals was provoked by a public inquiry that heard vivid testimony about sleaze: how at least one advertising executive was rewarded with lucrative contracts for making large, secret donations to the Liberal party - preferably cash - in unmarked envelopes.
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) n- ~2 F! e; t4 b- E! r: mThe irony is that it was Mr Martin who called a public inquiry into the scandal shortly after taking over from his long-time rival, former prime minister Jean Chretien. Mr Chretien always denied any wrongdoing and argued that the so-called sponsorship programme was important to build support for Canada after the separatists almost won the 1995 referendum. 8 [. |" f* d; f' N8 M
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Neither man has been personally implicated in the scandal.
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But Mr Martin was finance minister for a decade under Mr Chretien. He is now the face of the Liberal party and he could pay the ultimate price for a programme that is thought to have gone badly wrong.5 ]7 D( y/ C Y- A
# O+ z+ ~* M0 ^1 b) L* f) `He is asking the opposition parties to hold off calling an election until after the public inquiry, headed by Mr Justice John Gomery, finishes its work and issues a report in the autumn.
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"We need to hear Mr Justice Gomery's conclusions. Establishing the Gomery commission has cost me and my party political support, but it was, and it remains, the right thing to do," Mr Martin said last week.
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Polls show that Canadians do not want an election right now, and would prefer the opposition parties wait until the public inquiry is over.
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Mr Harper, however, will have to weigh those desires against the prospect of winning power. There is a chance that the public inquiry would exonerate Mr Martin. By going to the polls now, Mr Harper can catch Canadians at their angriest.
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For Mr Martin, a spring election could be a disaster. His first year in power has been a difficult one. He has been dubbed Mr Dithers because he has trouble making decisions on everything from joining the US missile defence plan to how to combat global warming. He was a successful finance minister, but has yet to find his feet as prime minister. G7 k+ b( k3 y% d/ i; L
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If the Liberals lose, his political career will be over. He schemed for years to oust Mr Chretien as prime minister, but will have only managed to last a year in the job he coveted for so long. His legacy would be thin. Much of what he introduced, including seed money for a new national daycare programme, legislation allowing same-sex marriage and an expensive initiative on global warming would be likely to die under a Conservative government.
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Public opinion polls show Canadians blame Mr Chretien for the scandal more than Mr Martin. But that might not be enough to save him in a spring election that now seems all but certain. / c. r/ ]) v6 F8 r5 `/ W1 H* \) ]
7 `" e5 H8 Y, m' {8 vGuardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2005 |
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