"We may owe China more than we think."

MyFairy

ZT:

How the Chinese dragon brought prosperity to Canada

Marcus Gee                                   Wednesday, October 03, 2007

If you are of a certain age, you may remember the Age of Inflation. There was a time, not so very long ago, when it was taken as a given that prices always went up. Complaining about how much "they" were charging for stuff was as common as moaning about the weather.

We still complain, but things are different now. For a generation or more, we have lived in an era of more or less stable prices. In fact, for many of the things we need in our everyday lives, prices have been going down. According to the Bank of Canada, prices for "durables excluding autos" fell 13.4 per cent between 1995 and 2006.

Durables, as the name implies, includes just about everything made to last: furniture, appliances, tools, watches, bicycles, musical instruments, computers, reading material, televisions, radios and recreational vehicles. The fall in the prices of semi-durables - bed sheets and towels, toys and games, photographic equipment, fabrics, jewellery and footwear - began later, in 2001. But the drop has been steady since; prices have fallen on average about 0.8 per cent a year.

It has escaped no one's notice that, over the same period in which all of these prices were dropping, Canadian stores - indeed stores the world over - have been flooded with goods from the new workshop of the world, China. Sticker shock used to mean being taken aback at how much something cost. Today what more often takes the breath away is how little things cost. A Chinese-made DVD player for 20-something dollars? A Chinese-made TV set for $100?
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There's no doubt that China's rise as a low-cost manufacturer is saving us all money. We can see it every time we walk into a Wal-Mart. The question is, how much? A report by Bank of Canada economist Louis Morel takes a stab at an answer.

8 I8 f9 ^. J* |/ B5 i  g1 UMr. Morel reminds us just how massive that import flood from China has been. In 1992, 18 per cent of Canada's clothing imports came from China. By 2006, that had risen to 50 per cent. In 1992, China supplied 4 per cent of our furniture imports; in 2006, 30 per cent. For appliances and audiovisual equipment, the figure moved from 2 per cent to 17 per cent.
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Mr. Morel reckons that, over the period 2001 to 2006, the flow of cheap goods from China has reduced Canada's annual inflation rate by about 0.1 per cent. That may not seem like much, but it means billions of dollars in the pockets of ordinary Canadians, something to remember the next time politicians or union leaders go on about how Chinese competition is threatening our prosperity.

"In the coming years," Mr. Morel concludes, "Canada's increasing imports of inexpensive goods from China will continue to act as a disinflationary source on the Canadian total inflation rate."

/ x: ?3 ]0 \0 T  BChina's effect on inflation is a controversial subject among economists, that fractious profession. A working paper for the International Monetary Fund released last year concluded that China had only a modest effect on U.S. inflation. A paper for the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System came to a similar conclusion. There is even a growing argument that as wages in China go up, the supply of cheap labour to Chinese factories slows and the price of things made in China rises, China may be becoming a source of inflationary pressure, pushing prices up instead of keeping them down.
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& B3 O: }" ]- I- S& [) BThat may happen in time, but it seems more likely that, for some years now, developed economies will benefit from China's restraint on global prices. As Mr. Morel points out, it doesn't matter if the price of Chinese goods trends up "as long as the price of these goods remains lower than what can be produced in Canada, or by other trading partners, and as long as the Chinese share of Canadian imports continues to rise." In other words, China doesn't hold down inflation by producing cheaper and cheaper goods. It holds down inflation because the relatively cheap price of the goods it exports to our shores keeps down the price of competing items here.

There are two other ways that China helps keep our inflation rate low. For one thing, it reduces the inflationary pressure that usually occurs when the economy heats up, spending increases and producers can't keep up with demand. In a globalized economy with free and rapid trade flows, some of that demand can be met by Chinese imports.
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: E# g& d* W! l! d* iFor another, China helps our central banks gain face. If inflation stays low in part thanks to cheap Chinese imports, then institutions like the U.S. Federal Reserve and our Bank of Canada accumulate credibility as inflation fighters and inflationary expectations diminish.
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0 k3 Y9 @9 }/ q% F5 |We may owe China more than we think.

© The Globe and Mail

古月照今城

Good points.

MyFairy

http://news.wenxuecity.com/messa ... -gb2312-465511.html

加拿大环球邮报10月3日发表该报专栏作家马科斯.吉撰写了题为《中国龙是怎样给加拿大带来繁荣的》的评论文章﹐从通货膨胀角度来分析中国给加拿大所带来经济繁荣﹐并认为加拿大应该为此而感谢中国的崛起。
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　　文章称﹐虽然加拿大仍在抱怨﹐但事情现在已大不相同了。对于整整一代人或更多的人来说﹐我们已生活在一个商品价格或多或少都稳定的时代。事实上﹐对于我们日常所需的许多商品来说﹐其价格一直呈下降趋势。据加拿大银行统计﹐除了汽车以外的耐用品价格﹐在1995年至2006的期间已经下降了13.4%。

! {! J7 ^2 I) ~; `0 ^: ]- y. h　　耐用品﹐顾名思义﹐包括所有为了耐用而生产的商品﹕家具﹑电器﹑工具﹑钟表﹑自行车﹑乐器﹑电脑﹑阅读材料﹑电视机﹑收音机和休闲车等。而半耐用品如床单 ﹑毛巾﹑玩具和游戏﹑摄影器材﹑纺织品﹑珠宝及鞋类等价格﹐是从2001年下半年开始下跌的。但随后的跌价却一直是非常稳定的﹐每年平均下降了0.8%。
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! C( h( m- y( O4 j5 h　　文章指出﹐就在所有商品价格都在下降的同时﹐人们却没有注意到这样一个事实﹕加拿大的所有商店﹐乃至世界各地的所有商店﹐都源源不断地涌进来自中国这个世界新加工厂的商品。贴纸休克(sticker shock)指的人们看标签上价钱太贵而大吃一惊的意思﹐但今天却经常用来形容价钱太低而让人不敢相信。一台中国产的DVD机才20几块钱﹖一台中国产的电视机才100多加元﹖

" y5 ~' b4 I! Y" b　　毫无疑问﹐作为一个低成本制造商的中国的崛起﹐正在节省所有加拿大人的钱。每当我们走进沃尔玛﹐我们就能够看到这一切。但问题是﹐我们到底省了多少钱呢﹖加拿大银行经济学家莫雷尔(Louis Morel)给出这样一个答案。

0 o  [( V  O4 t( }& C  d) M　　文章介绍说﹐莫雷尔提醒人们的是﹐加拿大从中国进口的商品到底是怎样的一个规模。1992年﹐加拿大从中国进口的服装只有18%﹐但到了2006年已上升到50%。1992年﹐中国向加拿大进口的家具只占其进口的4%﹐但到了2006年已升至30%。而家用电器和音像设备﹐则从当初的2%增加以目前的  17%。
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　　莫雷尔认为﹐在2001年至2006年期间﹐从中国进口的廉价商品﹐已经让加拿大平均每年减少了约0.1%的通货膨胀率。这个数字看起来似乎不大﹐但它却意味着加拿大普通百姓口袋里的数十亿加元﹐这也是那些政治家或工会领袖应该记住的﹐尤其是在下次再谈到中国的竞争力正在威胁这个国家的繁荣时。
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　　莫雷尔总结说﹐“在未来几年中﹐加拿大从中国进口廉价商品日益增多﹐将会继续在加拿大的整体通胀率中扮演一个反通货膨胀源的角色。”
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  m5 x5 F2 E2 T, F; ?8 y8 ^9 E　　马科斯.吉还在文章中指出﹐中国对加拿大通货膨胀的影响在一些经济学家中一直是一个备受争议的主题。国际货币基金组织2006年发表的一份工作文件得出的 结论是﹐中国对美国的通货膨胀只是温和的影响。美联储的一份文件也得出了相似的结论。甚至﹐越来越多的争论是﹐由于中国工资的上涨﹐提供给中国工厂的廉价劳工开始放缓﹐导致中国生产的商品价格上涨﹐使中国可能成为一个通胀压力的来源﹐从而推动价格上涨﹐而不是下降。

5 D- o: l: n$ ]" i6 Q% O! y　　这种情况可能会随时发生﹐但现在看起来似乎都需要几年时间﹐这就会让发达国家的经济﹐将继续从中国对全球商品价格的抑制中受益。正如莫雷尔先生所指出的那样﹐不管中国商品价格是否呈上升趋势﹐“只要这些商品的价格保持比加拿大或其它贸易伙伴的更低﹐只要中国对加拿大的出口份额继续增长”﹐这个国家就受益无穷。
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  U) b& w" U* V3 N2 c  _' q　　换句话说﹐中国并不会用生产更便宜的商品来抑制通货膨胀。但中国抑制了发达国家的通货膨胀﹐因为它把相对便宜的商品出口到象加拿大这样的口岸﹐使这里的商品价格在竞争中不断下跌。

7 G7 n, B4 U8 u! o　　文章指出﹐中国以两种途径帮助加拿大保持低通货膨胀率。其一﹐它减少了通常在经济升温时发生的消费增加和生产无法跟上需求等通货膨胀的压力。在经济全球化与自由贸易快速流动中﹐从中国进口的商品可以满足一些这样的需求。
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　　其二﹐中国帮助加拿大中央银行赢得了面子。如果通货膨胀维持在低水平－－其中部分原因是从中国进口了廉价商品﹐那么像美联储和加拿大央行这样的机构﹐就会因与通货膨胀搏斗和通货膨胀的预期减弱而赢得信誉。

. v& G  f3 ~% x( Q　　文章最后说﹐总之﹐“我们欠中国可能要比我们想象的还要多”。作为加拿大环球邮报一名国际事务专栏作家﹐马科斯.吉近期发表几篇与中国相关的评论文章。其中一篇曾为中国商品在美国接二连三被召回事件“鸣不平”。

7 i3 w, {1 t1 @. |- N　　马科斯.吉认为﹐玩具在美国被召回并不新鲜﹐30多年前就发生过。中国并不是劣质产品的唯一来源﹐美国也有造成不少人死亡的生产商。中国产品不安全被夸大了﹐但作为玩具第一大生产国﹐一些玩具被召回是正常的。但玩具被召回应该受到谴责的不是中国厂商﹐而是美方设计人员。
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　　马科斯.吉还指出﹐美国出现的中国产品不安全事件﹐已严重损害了“中国制造”的声誉﹐但时间将会改变这些。