House prices will continue to go up

屯民 · 发表于 2006-9-1 23:35

Bank report sees Edmonton as affordable despite demand

Ron Chalmers, The Edmonton Journal

Published: Friday, September 01, 2006

EDMONTON - Edmonton home prices will keep rising, but gradually, and are unlikely to fall says a major TD Economics report.

"There are concrete signs that the U. S. housing market is falling back to earth," Craig Alexander, TD's deputy chief economist wrote in the report, released Thursday. "This has led to concerns that Canada might have a similar experience."

But Canadian prices "have generally lacked the degree of speculation" seen in the U. S., he wrote.

Calgary and Vancouver do present "the possibility of a pullback in prices at some point in the future," Alexander cautioned. Edmonton is also experiencing explosive price growth, he wrote, "but affordability remains high."

Alexander said he expects Alberta's high immigration and low unemployment to sustain the demand for housing. More new homes and resale listings will dampen future price shocks but will not cause prices to fall, he predicted.

Alexander traced the recent spike in Edmonton resale home prices -- up 31 per cent this July from last July -- to inventory shortages.

"The best thing that could happen is the market moving into better balance, and this is starting to happen," he said, citing "a frenzy of housing starts."

Alexander expects prices now to rise slowly toward "a soft landing" of the boom -- with no bust.

Although Edmonton prices have risen faster than rents and incomes, they still score well on the "affordability index," he noted.

Payments on an average Edmonton home, with a 75-per-cent mortgage over a 25-year term, still consume only 18 per cent of a median family income -- compared to 24 per cent in Calgary and 50 per cent in Vancouver.

Alexander suggested that anyone considering a home purchase should balance the low risk of prices falling against the opposite risk that prices will continue to rise -- while a potential buyer remains out of the market.

"It's a question of affordability, and Edmonton is still extremely affordable for people of average incomes," he said -- although rising prices have shut out lower-income earners.

Vinay Bhardwaj, a market analyst with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, agreed that "prices will continue to go up, but not at the pace we have seen over the past few months."

The Alberta economy will sustain strong demand, he said, while rising supply will restrain price increases.

Madeline Sarafinchan, president of the Edmonton Real Estate Board, said increases already are moderating. While average Edmonton prices rose 31 per cent in the past 12 months, they rose only 1.5 per cent in the past one month, she said.

"It is a little slower, and I think that will continue."

Bhardwaj and Sarafinchan both noted that higher costs are shifting the market mix, with more first-time buyers looking at condominiums rather than single-detached houses.

Affordability has been further enhanced by financial institutions now offering 30 and 35-year mortgages.

Such long-term commitments are prudent, given Alberta's long-term economic outlook, said ATB spokesman Brian Countryman.

"We see nothing on the horizon to suggest that our economy is in jeopardy," he said.

Edmonton house prices are unlikely to fall because planned energy developments will attract workers, and "people coming to Alberta will need homes," Countryman said.

苹果鸭梨 · 发表于 2006-9-2 09:44

I remember that someone predict that Edmonton house prices will go up 1~3% every month. by this way, that will be 10~30% per year. That is still a quite high increase. Am I wrong?

音响神仙鱼 · 发表于 2006-9-2 09:53

原帖由 苹果鸭梨 于 2006-9-2 09:44 发表2 ~0 y) K# V* P, O
I remember that someone predict that Edmonton house prices will go up 1~3% every month. by this way, that will be 10~30% per year. That is still a quite high increase. Am I wrong?

Yeup, that's the so called "soft landing" still.

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2006-9-2 11:39

就是说，你们相信房子在不到1年半左右，可以价格翻番？醉酒绝不相信。历史告诉我们，加拿大房价8-10年才能翻番。

音响神仙鱼 · 发表于 2006-9-2 11:51

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-9-2 11:39 发表
. d5 n' o/ e ] k就是说，你们相信房子在不到1年半左右，可以价格翻番？醉酒绝不相信。历史告诉我们，加拿大房价8-10年才能翻番。

估计房价将还会继续缓慢上升，但势头应该有所调整，所谓的“软着陆“。但什么时候要翻番，什么时候要掉一半，你不知，我不知，

醉酒当歌 · 发表于 2006-9-2 11:58

是的，可能会超出想象地缓慢。其实，可以计算出来大约多少，未来的平均每年增长。

原帖由 音响神仙鱼 于 2006-9-2 11:51 发表
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/ f% b# @/ H; z% _& ^! ~估计房价将还会继续缓慢上升，但势头应该有所调整，所谓的“软着陆“。但什么时候要翻番，什么时候要掉一半，你不知，我不知，

variator · 发表于 2006-9-2 11:59

原帖由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-9-2 11:39 发表5 S! A. X+ S& S- z0 V
历史告诉我们，加拿大房价8-10年才能翻番。

醉酒真可爱, 总对历史和未来进行探讨,就不重视现在.

你问这或CALGARY2001-2003买房的有多少现在没翻番的?!

音响神仙鱼 · 发表于 2006-9-2 12:17

原帖由 variator 于 2006-9-2 11:59 发表
9 k |! o/ X* t5 |0 [
2 e3 a5 n4 t5 X2 l; v
! W. `2 k- v- G! d4 E$ o# `! o醉酒真可爱, 总对历史和未来进行探讨,就不重视现在.
: y" I5 p9 U* R' T& C, ^! Z2 t5 [4 {. S6 M! V# X" F1 E, j
你问这或CALGARY2001-2003买房的有多少现在没翻番的?!

94！ 04年18万能买的房子，现在要多少？醉酒再醉大概也知道吧？

lybbc2000 · 发表于 2006-9-2 13:18

原帖由 variator 于 2006-9-2 11:59 发表7 _% N0 @, u; b1 x7 V: }: v

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+ y! C: J3 U( E, V6 D+ W/ {醉酒真可爱, 总对历史和未来进行探讨,就不重视现在.
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) Q" F5 ~; H& y0 H& X# W2 \你问这或CALGARY2001-2003买房的有多少现在没翻番的?!

所以说这个房价正常吗？

音响神仙鱼 · 发表于 2006-9-2 13:43

原帖由 lybbc2000 于 2006-9-2 13:18 发表
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所以说这个房价正常吗？

要看从什么角度来看。
1。买屋者
2。卖屋者(不包括builder)
3。 Builder

作为消费者，当然希望价格要低，商品要好要多。builder和其他与建筑业有关的行业当然不希望亏钱来给你做房子，尤其现在人工，材料成本都飞涨，不加价难道等关门倒闭？剩下私人卖屋者，估计就是一些人不满的对象，凭什么隔几年就可以这么轻松赚十几万？呵呵，这么简单都不懂，那就真不知道怎么和你解释了。

lybbc2000 · 发表于 2006-9-2 17:00

原帖由 音响神仙鱼 于 2006-9-2 13:43 发表+ G4 E5 y \9 z% X# M! O

y% K# a4 s8 |$ y要看从什么角度来看。' P. Y9 G) n- o6 l/ i
1。买屋者) o0 y1 Q( h2 _0 F
2。卖屋者(不包括builder)4 q+ k* s7 {6 H" e1 z) a
3。 Builder
3 X8 g% l* L+ M1 |
5 @3 g. v8 w6 v3 c/ [6 c" {% x作为消费者，当然希望价格要低，商品要好要多。builder和其他与建筑业有关的行业当然不希望亏钱来给你做房子，尤其现在人工，材 ...

也不需要和你做啥解释，你是一个永远的唱多者。我没猜错的话，你是一个房地产经纪，无论谁出来看空，你都要坚决反击。

其实对我而言看空和看多都是因时而易的。我的朋友三年前24万买的房子，我们当时就说三年后我得30万才能买到，即使去年底已经达到这个价位，鉴于当时的因素，我还是倾向看多，当今年4月份朋友告诉我他的房子超过35万时，我就倾向中间了，7月份他说值四十几万了，我就站在空方的立场了。最近刚跟他通过电话，他的语气已经远远没有那么乐观了，叫我买房子时要多看看再说。

连股市在牛市的时候都要时时会提醒入市者，股市有风险，入市需谨慎，我是不赞同你所代表的这类唱多者一直鼓动大家赶紧买房，不提醒买家具备任何风险意识。

欢迎神仙鱼继续扔砖头，多讨论对广大读者大有裨益。

音响神仙鱼 · 发表于 2006-9-2 17:14

原帖由 lybbc2000 于 2006-9-2 17:00 发表( v- _: S3 Q. b, m* l$ B
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; E$ o" |$ N% [7 P: I8 b4 V也不需要和你做啥解释，你是一个永远的唱多者。我没猜错的话，你是一个房地产经纪，无论谁出来看空，你都要坚决反击。' H" @8 Y' N: U1 g& U9 O
u$ ]$ f7 I t* M0 q
其实对我而言看空和看多都是因时而易的。我的朋友三年前24万买的房子，我们当时就说三 ...

你口口声声说我是地产经纪，咱们来赌赌，赌注现金5000加元，老杨可以来作公证人，你敢不敢？！

variator · 发表于 2006-9-2 17:27

原帖由 音响神仙鱼 于 2006-9-2 17:14 发表% y9 z( c" |5 |, Q& ~

8 M/ |. b7 D- v# e7 \你口口声声说我是地产经纪，咱们来赌赌，赌注现金5000加元，老杨可以来作公证人，你敢不敢？！

好好-----期待中!

variator · 发表于 2006-9-2 17:29

谁说灌水不对, 看金币就来了!

音响神仙鱼 · 发表于 2006-9-2 17:32

原帖由 variator 于 2006-9-2 17:29 发表
9 n1 y- y1 D$ ?/ D, y谁说灌水不对, 看金币就来了!

等我赢了lybbc的5千大元，请你喝酒！

音响神仙鱼 · 发表于 2006-9-2 17:33

原帖由 音响神仙鱼 于 2006-9-2 17:32 发表6 g& n* \' \! h1 F( D0 _

Q. C# n4 n E等我赢了lybbc的5千大元，请你喝酒！

哈哈哈哈。。。！

variator · 发表于 2006-9-2 17:51

原帖由 lybbc2000 于 2006-9-2 13:18 发表% a$ y/ i) u$ M2 R. B! _7 _
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7 @1 T$ g: L- ` J所以说这个房价正常吗？

正常不正常我不知道. 但我知道有一句话叫"存在就是合理".

当我几年前买房时了解到前房主和邻居当初几年前都是一半的价(不到10万)卖的, 我当时也是买得胆战心惊,算了又算. 所以你们空方的立场我是理解滴, 而且你如果有时间你翻一下我以前的贴, 我从来都是主张理智的做多(在买房上)并非你们单纯的理解为"托". 我发起对醉酒的讨伐只不过对他不顾自己的一错再错, 最后象醉了似的要与自己根本就没法控制和预测的市场进行大赌.

variator · 发表于 2006-9-2 18:04

中国有一句话叫"牛市不言顶", 在抄股时当第三波上涨时谁能预测其顶部?

我理解ALBERTA房产的大牛市发动的根本是石油, 其结束也将与石油相联!

variator · 发表于 2006-9-2 18:07

原帖由 音响神仙鱼 于 2006-9-2 17:32 发表
3 |$ a" W& N; n1 g) `- `6 v2 {/ U5 Q
; |/ c% L t. f& J等我赢了lybbc的5千大元，请你喝酒！

嘿嘿, 我不喝酒,到时就请醉酒吧, 他的口水都已流了一地了.

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